What is ConocoPhillips (COP) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

ConocoPhillips (COP) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is ConocoPhillips's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

ConocoPhillips operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas E&P) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is ConocoPhillips's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

ConocoPhillips's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor ConocoPhillips (COP) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits ConocoPhillips's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksCOP

COP

ConocoPhillipsEnergy / Oil & Gas E&PINTACT

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids. It operates in five segments: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe, Middle East and North Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; global LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of global exploration prospects. It serves in the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and internationally. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Share Price

$137.35

52W: $85.57 - $138.89

DCF Fair Value

$173.94

+21% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

18.2x

ROIC

23.6%

Operating Margin

31.5%

FCF Yield

4.7%

Debt / Equity

0.36x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.85

Market Cap

$165B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($137.35 vs $173.94 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$173.94

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$130.46

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($173.94) 25% MOS Buy Target ($130.46) Revised Graham ($222.45) Graham Number ($96.19)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$137.35

DCF Fair Value

$173.74

+20.9% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$7,691M

$100M$7,691M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)15.7%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$15,600M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$91.9B

PV of Terminal Value

$132.4B

Implied Enterprise Value

$224.3B

Implied Equity Value

$208.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$8,898	$10,296	$11,912	$13,782	$15,946	$16,663	$17,413	$18,197	$19,016	$19,872
Present Value (PV)	$8,164	$8,666	$9,198	$9,764	$10,364	$9,936	$9,526	$9,132	$8,755	$8,394

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-42.8% Premium

$96.19

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.56BVPS: $54.40

Revised Graham Formula+38.3% MoS

$222.45

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings4.4% Yield

$6.08 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $7.3BYield: 4.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

6.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $137.35, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 6.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil COP with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for ConocoPhillips. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 31.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: ConocoPhillips (COP) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for ConocoPhillips.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, ConocoPhillips has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $173.94 per share compared to its current market price of $137.35. This represents an estimated 21.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $96.19.