MPC

Marathon Petroleum CorporationEnergy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingINTACT

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

Share Price
$395.93
52W: $161.93 - $409.11
DCF Fair Value
$549.91
+28% MoS
P/E (TTM)
13.7x
ROIC
10.2%
Operating Margin
13.6%
FCF Yield
8%
Debt / Equity
1.33x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
5.35
Market Cap
$115.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$549.91
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$412.43
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$395.93
DCF Fair Value
$549.88
+28% MoS
$9,249M
$100M$9,249M (Reported)$50,000M
6.8%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$26,500M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$80.4B
PV of Terminal Value
$106.7B
Implied Enterprise Value
$187.1B
Implied Equity Value
$160.6B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$9,878$10,550$11,267$12,033$12,851$13,430$14,034$14,666$15,326$16,015
Present Value (PV)$9,062$8,879$8,700$8,525$8,353$8,008$7,677$7,360$7,056$6,765

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-89.3% Premium
$209.15

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $28.84BVPS: $67.41
Revised Graham Formula+19.9%
$494.37

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings7.6% Yield
$30.09 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $8.8BYield: 7.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER
-0.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $395.93, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -0.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MPC with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Marathon Petroleum Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 13.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Marathon Petroleum Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Marathon Petroleum Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $549.91 per share compared to its current market price of $395.93. This represents an estimated 28.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $209.15.

Related Energy Value Stocks & Sector Peers

Compare Marathon Petroleum Corporation with audited intrinsic valuation models across the Energy sector.

View All S&P 500 Stocks