What is Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Chord Energy Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Chord Energy Corporation operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas E&P) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Chord Energy Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Chord Energy Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Chord Energy Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksCHRD

CHRD

Chord Energy CorporationEnergy / Oil & Gas E&PINTACT

Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. The company engages in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin. It sells its products to refiners, marketers, and other purchasers that have access to pipeline and rail facilities. The company was formerly known as Oasis Petroleum Inc. and changed its name to Chord Energy Corporation in July 2022. Chord Energy Corporation was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Share Price

$152.01

52W: $84.25 - $154

DCF Fair Value

$530.29

+71.3% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

10.3x

ROIC

26%

Operating Margin

34.7%

FCF Yield

11.6%

Debt / Equity

0.18x

Piotroski Score

9/9

Altman Z-Score

Market Cap

$8.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$530.29

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$397.72

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($530.29) 25% MOS Buy Target ($397.72) Revised Graham ($468.37) Graham Number ($224.62)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$152.01

DCF Fair Value

$526.50

+71.1% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$961M

$100M$961M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)17.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$900M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$12.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$17.7B

Implied Enterprise Value

$29.9B

Implied Equity Value

$29.0B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,127	$1,322	$1,551	$1,819	$2,134	$2,230	$2,330	$2,435	$2,545	$2,659
Present Value (PV)	$1,034	$1,113	$1,198	$1,289	$1,387	$1,330	$1,275	$1,222	$1,172	$1,123

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+32.3% MoS

$224.62

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $14.81BVPS: $151.41

Revised Graham Formula+67.5% MoS

$468.37

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings10.9% Yield

$16.60 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.9BYield: 10.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-5.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $152.01, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -5.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil CHRD with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Chord Energy Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 34.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Track CHRD & Set Alerts Browse S&P 500 Coverage

Frequently Asked Questions: Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Chord Energy Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Chord Energy Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $530.29 per share compared to its current market price of $152.01. This represents an estimated 71.3% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $224.62.