What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Restaurants) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksCMG

CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsINTACT

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. The company sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids' meals, chips, and sides. It also offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork under the Responsibly Raised brand. In addition, the company provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It operates in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

Share Price

$36.20

52W: $28.04 - $42.82

DCF Fair Value

$15.07

-140.2% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

33.5x

ROIC

12.1%

Operating Margin

16.1%

FCF Yield

2.4%

Debt / Equity

2.46x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.31

Market Cap

$45.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($15.07)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$15.07

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$11.30

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($15.07) 25% MOS Buy Target ($11.30) Revised Graham ($20.39) Graham Number ($6.49)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$36.20

DCF Fair Value

$15.13

-139.2% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,116M

$100M$1,116M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)8.1%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$4,700M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$10.2B

PV of Terminal Value

$13.7B

Implied Enterprise Value

$23.8B

Implied Equity Value

$19.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,206	$1,304	$1,410	$1,524	$1,647	$1,722	$1,799	$1,880	$1,965	$2,053
Present Value (PV)	$1,107	$1,098	$1,089	$1,080	$1,071	$1,026	$984	$943	$905	$867

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-456.9% Premium

$6.50

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.08BVPS: $1.74

Revised Graham Formula-77.5% Premium

$20.39

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.3% Yield

$0.84 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.1BYield: 2.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

15.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $36.20, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 15.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil CMG with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 16.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $15.07 per share compared to its current market price of $36.20. This represents an estimated 140.2% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $6.49.