What is Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Diamondback Energy, Inc. operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas E&P) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Diamondback Energy, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

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Diamondback Energy, Inc.Energy / Oil & Gas E&PINTACT

Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States. The company primarily focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

Share Price

$204.97

52W: $134.3 - $216.9

DCF Fair Value

$528.53

+61.2% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

39x

ROIC

36.4%

Operating Margin

48.5%

FCF Yield

8.7%

Debt / Equity

0.29x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.76

Market Cap

$57.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$528.53

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$396.40

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($528.53) 25% MOS Buy Target ($396.40) Revised Graham ($185.63) Graham Number ($126.44)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$204.97

DCF Fair Value

$529.30

+61.3% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$5,036M

$100M$5,036M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$12,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$65.2B

PV of Terminal Value

$95.6B

Implied Enterprise Value

$160.8B

Implied Equity Value

$148.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$5,942	$7,012	$8,274	$9,764	$11,521	$12,040	$12,581	$13,148	$13,739	$14,357
Present Value (PV)	$5,452	$5,902	$6,389	$6,917	$7,488	$7,179	$6,882	$6,598	$6,326	$6,065

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-62.1% Premium

$126.44

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $5.26BVPS: $135.08

Revised Graham Formula-10.4% Premium

$185.63

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings8.3% Yield

$17.03 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $4.8BYield: 8.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-1.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $204.97, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -1.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil FANG with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Diamondback Energy, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 48.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Diamondback Energy, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Diamondback Energy, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $528.53 per share compared to its current market price of $204.97. This represents an estimated 61.2% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $126.44.