What is Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Garmin Ltd.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Garmin Ltd. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Consumer Electronics) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Garmin Ltd.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Garmin Ltd.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Garmin Ltd.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksGRMN

GRMN

Garmin Ltd.Technology / Scientific & Technical InstrumentsINTACT

Garmin Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes a diverse range of GPS-enabled products and navigation, communications, sensor-based, and information products and services worldwide. It offers running; cycling products; smartwatch devices; scales and monitors; and sports timing and performance analysis; Garmin Connect and Garmin Connect Mobile, which are web and mobile platforms where users can track and analyze their fitness, activities and workouts, and wellness data; and Connect IQ, which enables third parties to create applications that run on Garmin devices. It also provides adventure watches; outdoor handhelds and satellite communicators; golf devices; consumer automotive; dog devices; InReach and Gramin response; and dive devices. In addition, it designs, manufactures, and markets various aircraft avionics solutions, including integrated flight decks, electronic flight displays and instrumentation, navigation and communication products, automatic flight control systems and safety-enhancing technologies, audio control systems, engine indication systems, traffic awareness and avoidance solutions, ADS-B and transponders, weather information and avoidance solutions, datalink and connectivity solutions, and portable GPS navigators and wearables, as well as service products to the aviation market. Further, it offers chartplotters and multi-function displays, cartography, fishfinders, sonar, autopilot systems, radars, compliant instrument displays and sensors, VHF communication radios, handhelds and wearable devices, sailing, audio, digital switching, trolling motors, and lighting; and domain controllers and infotainment units, as well as software, map database, camera, wearable, and automotive solutions. The company sells its products through independent retailers, dealers, distributors, installation and repair shops, OEM, and online webshop. Garmin Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is based in Schaffhausen, Switzerland.

Share Price

$282.67

52W: $186.67 - $314.28

DCF Fair Value

$167.38

-68.9% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

28.1x

ROIC

22.8%

Operating Margin

30.4%

FCF Yield

1.9%

Debt / Equity

0.03x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.12

Market Cap

$54.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($167.38)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$167.38

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$125.54

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($167.38) 25% MOS Buy Target ($125.54) Revised Graham ($288.64) Graham Number ($102.93)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$282.67

DCF Fair Value

$167.57

-68.7% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,044M

$100M$1,044M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)15.2%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$2,500M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$12.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$17.6B

Implied Enterprise Value

$29.8B

Implied Equity Value

$32.3B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,203	$1,386	$1,596	$1,839	$2,118	$2,214	$2,313	$2,417	$2,526	$2,640
Present Value (PV)	$1,103	$1,166	$1,232	$1,303	$1,377	$1,320	$1,265	$1,213	$1,163	$1,115

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-174.7% Premium

$102.92

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $10.06BVPS: $46.80

Revised Graham Formula+2.1%

$288.64

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings1.8% Yield

$5.14 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.0BYield: 1.8%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

18.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $282.67, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 18.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil GRMN with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Garmin Ltd.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 30.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Garmin Ltd..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Garmin Ltd. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $167.38 per share compared to its current market price of $282.67. This represents an estimated 68.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $102.93.