What is CarMax, Inc. (KMX) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is CarMax, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

CarMax, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Auto & Truck Dealerships) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is CarMax, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

CarMax, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor CarMax, Inc. (KMX) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits CarMax, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksKMX

KMX

CarMax IncConsumer Cyclical / Auto & Truck DealershipsINTACT

CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. The CarMax Sales Operations segment offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; wholesale auctions; extended protection plans to customers at the time of sale; and reconditioning and vehicle repair services. The CarMax Auto Finance segment provides financing alternatives for retail customers across a range of credit spectrum and arrangements with various financial institutions. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia.

Share Price

$61.32

52W: $30.26 - $65.28

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

38.1x

ROIC

Operating Margin

3.4%

FCF Yield

-1.8%

Debt / Equity

3.08x

Piotroski Score

4/9

Altman Z-Score

6.08

Market Cap

$8.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($24.35) Graham Number ($39.52)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$61.32

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$100M

$100M$-160M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$18,700M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$0.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$1.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$1.9B

Implied Equity Value

$-16.8B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$105	$111	$117	$123	$129	$135	$141	$148	$154	$161
Present Value (PV)	$97	$93	$90	$87	$84	$81	$77	$74	$71	$68

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-55.2% Premium

$39.52

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.61BVPS: $43.12

Revised Graham Formula-151.8% Premium

$24.35

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings-1.7% Yield

$-1.07 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $-0.2BYield: -1.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $61.32, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil KMX with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for CarMax Inc. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 3.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: CarMax Inc (KMX) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for CarMax Inc.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, CarMax Inc has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $61.32. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $39.52.