What is NVR, Inc. (NVR) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

NVR, Inc. (NVR) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is NVR, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

NVR, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Residential Construction) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is NVR, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

NVR, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor NVR, Inc. (NVR) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits NVR, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksNVR

NVR

NVR, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Residential ConstructionINTACT

NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company operates through Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking segments. It engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names. The company markets its Ryan Homes products to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes products to move-up and luxury buyers. It also provides various mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, as well as brokers title insurance; performs title searches; and sells mortgage loans to investors in the secondary markets on a servicing released basis. The company primarily serves Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, Washington, D.C., New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky. NVR, Inc. was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

Share Price

$6160.76

52W: $5501.01 - $8544.39

DCF Fair Value

$1867.50

-229.9% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

16x

ROIC

10.4%

Operating Margin

13.9%

FCF Yield

5.6%

Debt / Equity

0.32x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.98

Market Cap

$16.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($1867.50)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$1867.50

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$1400.63

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($1867.50) 25% MOS Buy Target ($1400.63) Revised Graham ($6666.31) Graham Number ($3310.98)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$6160.76

DCF Fair Value

$6215.22

+0.9%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$918M

$100M$918M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.9%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$0M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$8.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$10.6B

Implied Enterprise Value

$18.6B

Implied Equity Value

$18.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$981	$1,049	$1,121	$1,199	$1,282	$1,339	$1,399	$1,462	$1,528	$1,597
Present Value (PV)	$900	$883	$866	$849	$833	$799	$766	$734	$704	$675

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-86.1% Premium

$3310.97

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $384.78BVPS: $1266.24

Revised Graham Formula+7.6%

$6666.31

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings4.7% Yield

$290.70 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.9BYield: 4.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

5.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $6160.76, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 5.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil NVR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for NVR, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 13.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: NVR, Inc. (NVR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for NVR, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, NVR, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $1867.50 per share compared to its current market price of $6160.76. This represents an estimated 229.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $3310.98.