What is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Auto Parts) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksORLY

ORLY

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsINTACT

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company offers enhanced services and programs consisting of used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; referrals to trusted local repair shops; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. It offers its products to do-it-yourself and professional service providers for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. It offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brand names. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

Share Price

$85.82

52W: $82.59 - $108.72

DCF Fair Value

$33.64

-155.1% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

27.2x

ROIC

15.2%

Operating Margin

20.2%

FCF Yield

2.3%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.35

Market Cap

$69.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($33.64)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$33.64

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$25.23

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($33.64) 25% MOS Buy Target ($25.23) Revised Graham ($68.43)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$85.82

DCF Fair Value

$33.60

-155.4% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,571M

$100M$1,571M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)10.1%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$9,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$15.4B

PV of Terminal Value

$21.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$36.5B

Implied Equity Value

$27.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,730	$1,904	$2,097	$2,308	$2,542	$2,656	$2,776	$2,900	$3,031	$3,167
Present Value (PV)	$1,587	$1,603	$1,619	$1,635	$1,652	$1,584	$1,518	$1,456	$1,396	$1,338

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $3.15BVPS: $-2.25

Revised Graham Formula-25.4% Premium

$68.43

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.1% Yield

$1.84 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.5BYield: 2.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

16.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $85.82, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 16.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ORLY with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 20.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Track ORLY & Set Alerts Browse S&P 500 Coverage

Frequently Asked Questions: O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $33.64 per share compared to its current market price of $85.82. This represents an estimated 155.1% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.