What is PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is PulteGroup, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

PulteGroup, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Residential Construction) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is PulteGroup, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

PulteGroup, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits PulteGroup, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksPHM

PHM

PulteGroup, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Residential ConstructionINTACT

PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United States. The company is involved in the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes, as well as construction of housing; and sale of single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes, condominiums, and duplexes under the Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods brands. It also engages in the mortgage banking, title, and insurance agency operations. PulteGroup, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Share Price

$118.26

52W: $108.49 - $144.5

DCF Fair Value

$113.84

-3.9% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

12.1x

ROIC

11.8%

Operating Margin

15.7%

FCF Yield

4.8%

Debt / Equity

0.19x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

4.32

Market Cap

$22.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($113.84)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$113.84

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$85.38

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($113.84) 25% MOS Buy Target ($85.38) Revised Graham ($182.18) Graham Number ($123.59)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$118.26

DCF Fair Value

$114.00

-3.7% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,079M

$100M$1,079M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)7.9%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$1,200M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$9.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$13.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$22.9B

Implied Equity Value

$21.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,164	$1,256	$1,355	$1,463	$1,578	$1,649	$1,723	$1,801	$1,882	$1,967
Present Value (PV)	$1,068	$1,057	$1,047	$1,036	$1,026	$983	$943	$904	$866	$831

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+4.3%

$123.59

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $9.79BVPS: $69.34

Revised Graham Formula+35.1% MoS

$182.18

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings4.6% Yield

$5.40 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.0BYield: 4.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

6.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $118.26, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 6.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil PHM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for PulteGroup, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 15.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for PulteGroup, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, PulteGroup, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $113.84 per share compared to its current market price of $118.26. This represents an estimated 3.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $123.59.