PSX

Phillips 66Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingINTACT

Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. The Midstream segment provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling, and storage services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) gathering, processing, transportation, fractionation, storage and marketing services. It also exports liquefied petroleum gas. The Chemicals segment produces and markets ethylene and other olefin products; aromatics and styrenics products, such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene; various specialty chemical products, including organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals used in drilling and mining; and petrochemicals and plastics. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasolines and distillates, including aviation fuels. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined products, including gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. This segment also manufactures and markets specialty products, such as automotive, commercial, industrial, and specialty lubricants, as well as base oils. The Renewable Fuels segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable products, as well as supplies sustainable aviation fuel. This segment also procures renewable feedstocks, manages certain regulatory credits, and markets renewable diesel, renewable jet fuel, and other renewable fuels. The company markets its products under the Phillips 66, Conoco and 76, JET, Kendall, Red Line, and other private label brands. Phillips 66 was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Share Price
$259.47
52W: $126.74 - $265.33
DCF Fair Value
$175.16
-48.1% Premium
P/E (TTM)
14.8x
ROIC
8%
Operating Margin
8.5%
FCF Yield
4.4%
Debt / Equity
0.63x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
5.4
Market Cap
$103.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($175.16)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$175.16
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$131.37
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$259.47
DCF Fair Value
$174.78
-48.5% Premium
$4,545M
$100M$4,545M (Reported)$50,000M
5.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$16,500M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$37.4B
PV of Terminal Value
$48.8B
Implied Enterprise Value
$86.2B
Implied Equity Value
$69.7B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$4,786$5,040$5,307$5,588$5,884$6,149$6,426$6,715$7,017$7,333
Present Value (PV)$4,391$4,242$4,098$3,959$3,824$3,666$3,515$3,370$3,231$3,097

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-47% Premium
$176.48

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $17.53BVPS: $78.96
Revised Graham Formula+2.1%
$265.14

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings4.2% Yield
$10.82 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $4.3BYield: 4.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
7.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $259.47, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 7.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil PSX with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Phillips 66. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 8.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Phillips 66 (PSX) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Phillips 66.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Phillips 66 has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $175.16 per share compared to its current market price of $259.47. This represents an estimated 48.1% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $176.47.

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