TSCO
Tractor Supply CompanyConsumer Cyclical / Specialty RetailINTACTTractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness products; seasonal and recreation products comprising tractors and riders, lawn and garden, bird feeding, power equipment, and other recreational products; truck, tool, and hardware products, such as truck accessories, trailers, generators, lubricants, batteries, and hardware and tools; and clothing, gift, and décor products consist of clothing, footwear, toys, snacks, and decorative merchandise. It offers its products under the 4health, Paws & Claws, American Farmworks, Producer's Pride, Bit & Bridle, Red Shed, Blue Mountain, Redstone, C.E. Schmidt, Retriever, Country Lane, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Country Tuff, Strive, Dumor, Traveller, Farm Table, Treeline, Groundwork, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Huskee, Untamed, JobSmart, and Impeckable brand names. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Petsense by Tractor Supply, and Orscheln Farm and Home names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. Tractor Supply Company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Fair Value RangeHistorical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $109 | $116 | $123 | $131 | $138 | $145 | $151 | $158 | $165 | $173 |
| Present Value (PV) | $100 | $98 | $95 | $92 | $90 | $86 | $83 | $79 | $76 | $73 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
SPECULATIVE BARRIERAt the current price of $33.01, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 34.5% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil TSCO with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Tractor Supply Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 12.1% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Tractor Supply Company.
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