What is Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Valero Energy Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Valero Energy Corporation operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Valero Energy Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Valero Energy Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Valero Energy Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksVLO

VLO

Valero Energy CorporationEnergy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingINTACT

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils. It sells its refined products through wholesale rack and bulk markets; and through outlets under the Valero, Beacon, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and Texaco brands. The company also owns and operates renewable diesel and ethanol plants, as well as produces and sells renewable diesel, renewable naphtha, and neat sustainable aviation fuel under the Diamond Green Diesel brand name. In addition, it offers ethanol and various co-products, including dry distillers grains, syrup, and inedible distillers corn oil to animal feed customers. The company was formerly known as Valero Refining and Marketing Company and changed its name to Valero Energy Corporation in August 1997. Valero Energy Corporation was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

Share Price

$390.42

52W: $155.29 - $399.26

DCF Fair Value

$562.61

+30.6% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

16.3x

ROIC

9.2%

Operating Margin

12.3%

FCF Yield

7.5%

Debt / Equity

0.4x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

5.09

Market Cap

$112.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$562.61

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$421.96

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($562.61) 25% MOS Buy Target ($421.96) Revised Graham ($388.91) Graham Number ($216.40)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$390.42

DCF Fair Value

$561.91

+30.5% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$8,416M

$100M$8,416M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.1%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$3,400M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$71.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$93.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$165.2B

Implied Equity Value

$161.8B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$8,929	$9,474	$10,052	$10,665	$11,316	$11,825	$12,357	$12,913	$13,494	$14,101
Present Value (PV)	$8,192	$7,974	$7,762	$7,555	$7,354	$7,051	$6,760	$6,481	$6,213	$5,957

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-80.4% Premium

$216.40

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $23.97BVPS: $86.83

Revised Graham Formula-0.4% Premium

$388.91

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings7.1% Yield

$27.76 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $8.0BYield: 7.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $390.42, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil VLO with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Valero Energy Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 12.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Valero Energy Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Valero Energy Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $562.61 per share compared to its current market price of $390.42. This represents an estimated 30.6% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $216.40.