What is Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. operates in the Financials sector (Insurance - Diversified) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksACGL

ACGL

Arch Capital Group Ltd.Financial Services / Insurance - DiversifiedINTACT

Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance. Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products. The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans. It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.

Share Price

$96.09

52W: $82.45 - $107.09

DCF Fair Value

$335.01

+71.3% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

7.5x

ROIC

20%

Operating Margin

26.6%

FCF Yield

13.1%

Debt / Equity

0.18x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

4.41

Market Cap

$32.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$335.01

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$251.26

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($335.01) 25% MOS Buy Target ($251.26) Revised Graham ($333.88) Graham Number ($140.16)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$96.09

DCF Fair Value

$334.62

+71.3% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$4,302M

$100M$4,302M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)13.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$200M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$47.2B

PV of Terminal Value

$66.7B

Implied Enterprise Value

$113.9B

Implied Equity Value

$114.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$4,874	$5,522	$6,257	$7,089	$8,032	$8,393	$8,771	$9,166	$9,578	$10,009
Present Value (PV)	$4,472	$4,648	$4,831	$5,022	$5,220	$5,005	$4,798	$4,600	$4,410	$4,228

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+31.4% MoS

$140.16

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $12.78BVPS: $68.32

Revised Graham Formula+71.2% MoS

$333.88

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings12.5% Yield

$11.99 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $4.1BYield: 12.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-7.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $96.09, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -7.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ACGL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Arch Capital Group Ltd.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 26.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Arch Capital Group Ltd..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Arch Capital Group Ltd. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $335.01 per share compared to its current market price of $96.09. This represents an estimated 71.3% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $140.16.