What is JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates in the Financials sector (Banks - Diversified) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksJPM

JPM

JP Morgan Chase & Co.Financial Services / Banks - DiversifiedINTACT

JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a bank and financial holding company in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It operates in three segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management. The company offers deposit, investment and lending products, and cash management; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit cards, payment solutions, travel services, merchant offers, lifestyle benefits, auto loans, and leases to consumers and small businesses through bank branches, ATMs, and digital and telephone banking. It also provides investment banking, market-making, financing, custody, and securities products and services; corporate strategy and structure advisory, equity and debt market capital-raising, and loan origination and syndication services; cash and derivative instruments, risk management solutions, prime brokerage, clearing, and research; and fund services, liquidity and trading services, and data solutions products for large corporations, financial institutions, merchants, start-ups, small and midsized companies, local governments, municipalities, nonprofits, and commercial real estate clients. In addition, the company offers multi-asset investment management solutions in equities, fixed income, alternatives, and money market funds to institutional clients and retail investors; retirement products and services, estate planning, lending, deposits, and investment management products to high-net-worth clients; and financial transaction processing. JPMorgan Chase & Co. was founded in 1799 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Share Price

$356.23

52W: $279.1 - $366.5

DCF Fair Value

$782.18

+54.5% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

15.2x

ROIC

37.8%

Operating Margin

50.4%

FCF Yield

6.3%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

4.01

Market Cap

$946.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$782.18

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$586.63

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($782.18) 25% MOS Buy Target ($586.63) Revised Graham ($829.71) Graham Number ($265.25)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$356.23

DCF Fair Value

$782.23

+54.5% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$59,369M

$100M$59,369M (Reported)$148,423M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$183,100M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$768.6B

PV of Terminal Value

$1127.4B

Implied Enterprise Value

$1896.1B

Implied Equity Value

$2079.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$70,055	$82,665	$97,545	$115,103	$135,822	$141,934	$148,321	$154,995	$161,970	$169,259
Present Value (PV)	$64,271	$69,578	$75,323	$81,542	$88,275	$84,631	$81,137	$77,787	$74,576	$71,497

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-34.3% Premium

$265.25

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $23.51BVPS: $133.01

Revised Graham Formula+57.1% MoS

$829.71

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings6% Yield

$21.22 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $56.4BYield: 6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

2.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $356.23, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 2.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil JPM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for JP Morgan Chase & Co.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 50.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for JP Morgan Chase & Co..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, JP Morgan Chase & Co. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $782.18 per share compared to its current market price of $356.23. This represents an estimated 54.5% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $265.25.