What is Morgan Stanley (MS) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Morgan Stanley (MS) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Morgan Stanley's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Morgan Stanley operates in the Financials sector (Capital Markets) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Morgan Stanley's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Morgan Stanley's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Morgan Stanley (MS) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Morgan Stanley's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMS

MS

Morgan StanleyFinancial Services / Capital MarketsINTACT

Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. The company offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity securities, and other products, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and project finance. It also provides equity and fixed income products comprising sales, financing, prime brokerage, and market-making services; Asia wealth management; business-related investments services; originating corporate and commercial real estate loans, secured lending facilities, and extending securities-based and other financing; and research activities. In addition, the company offers financial advisor-led brokerage, investment advisory, custody, cash management, and administrative services; self-directed brokerage services; financial and wealth planning services; stock plan administration; securities-based lending, residential real estate loans, and other lending products; banking; and retirement plan services. Further, it provides equity, fixed income, alternatives and solutions, and liquidity and overlay services to benefit/defined contribution plans, foundations, endowments, government entities, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, third-party fund sponsors, corporations, and individuals. Morgan Stanley was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Share Price

$214.38

52W: $151.84 - $232.25

DCF Fair Value

$459.38

+53.3% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

17.3x

ROIC

31.2%

Operating Margin

41.6%

FCF Yield

5.5%

Debt / Equity

5.17x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

4.82

Market Cap

$336.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$459.38

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$344.54

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($459.38) 25% MOS Buy Target ($344.54) Revised Graham ($436.91) Graham Number ($137.43)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$214.38

DCF Fair Value

$459.27

+53.3% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$18,471M

$100M$18,471M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$131,600M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$239.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$350.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$589.9B

Implied Equity Value

$721.5B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$21,796	$25,719	$30,348	$35,811	$42,257	$44,159	$46,146	$48,222	$50,392	$52,660
Present Value (PV)	$19,996	$21,647	$23,435	$25,370	$27,464	$26,330	$25,243	$24,201	$23,202	$22,244

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-56% Premium

$137.43

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $12.38BVPS: $67.80

Revised Graham Formula+50.9% MoS

$436.91

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings5.2% Yield

$11.17 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $17.5BYield: 5.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

4.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $214.38, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 4.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MS with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Morgan Stanley. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 41.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Morgan Stanley (MS) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Morgan Stanley.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Morgan Stanley has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $459.38 per share compared to its current market price of $214.38. This represents an estimated 53.3% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $137.43.