MA

Mastercard IncorporatedFinancial Services / Credit ServicesINTACT

Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs, and financial institutions, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; marketing, personalization, and issuer and merchant loyalty services; business and operational intelligence, advanced analytics and AI, consulting and agentic solutions, and payments and portfolio optimization; digital and authentication; processing and gateway solutions; and other solutions. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

Share Price
$579.21
52W: $464.52 - $601.62
DCF Fair Value
$608.02
+4.7%
P/E (TTM)
31.8x
ROIC
45.8%
Operating Margin
61.1%
FCF Yield
3.3%
Debt / Equity
4.4x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
3
Market Cap
$507.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($579.21 vs $608.02 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$608.02
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$456.02
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$579.21
DCF Fair Value
$608.38
+4.8%
$16,961M
$100M$16,961M (Reported)$50,000M
18.0%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$13,000M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$219.6B
PV of Terminal Value
$322.1B
Implied Enterprise Value
$541.7B
Implied Equity Value
$528.7B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$20,014$23,617$27,867$32,884$38,803$40,549$42,373$44,280$46,273$48,355
Present Value (PV)$18,361$19,878$21,519$23,296$25,219$24,178$23,180$22,223$21,305$20,426

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-1031.7% Premium
$51.18

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $18.19BVPS: $6.40
Revised Graham Formula+9.8%
$641.96

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings3.2% Yield
$18.54 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $16.1BYield: 3.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
10.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $579.21, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 10.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MA with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Mastercard Incorporated. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 61.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Mastercard Incorporated.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Mastercard Incorporated has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $608.02 per share compared to its current market price of $579.21. This represents an estimated 4.7% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $51.16.

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