What is The Allstate Corporation (ALL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

The Allstate Corporation (ALL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is The Allstate Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

The Allstate Corporation operates in the Financials sector (Insurance - Property & Casualty) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is The Allstate Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

The Allstate Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor The Allstate Corporation (ALL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits The Allstate Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksALL

ALL

Allstate Corporation (The)Financial Services / Insurance - Property & CasualtyINTACT

The Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada. It operates in four segments: Allstate Protection; Run-off Property-Liability; Protection Services; and Corporate and Other. The company offers private passenger auto, homeowners, other personal lines and commercial insurance through exclusive agents, independent agents, contact centers and online under the Allstate, National General, Direct Auto and Answer Financial brands. It also provides consumer product protection plans, device and mobile data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, roadside assistance, and protection plans; and insurance products, such as identity protection and restoration. In addition, the company offers property and casualty insurance, as well as engages in company activities and certain non-insurance operations, including expenses associated with strategic initiatives. Further, it offers automotive protection; vehicle service contracts, guaranteed asset protection, road hazard tires and wheels, and paintless dent repair protection; and roadside assistance, mobility data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, identity theft protection, and remediation services. The Allstate Corporation was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.

Share Price

$253.71

52W: $188.08 - $277.22

DCF Fair Value

$1461.93

+82.6% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

5.1x

ROIC

17.1%

Operating Margin

22.8%

FCF Yield

23.6%

Debt / Equity

0.22x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

5.49

Market Cap

$64.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$1461.93

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$1096.45

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($1461.93) 25% MOS Buy Target ($1096.45) Revised Graham ($1171.69) Graham Number ($374.42)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$253.71

DCF Fair Value

$1461.04

+82.6% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$15,159M

$100M$15,159M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)11.4%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$1,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$155.6B

PV of Terminal Value

$215.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$371.4B

Implied Equity Value

$369.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$16,887	$18,812	$20,957	$23,346	$26,007	$27,178	$28,401	$29,679	$31,014	$32,410
Present Value (PV)	$15,493	$15,834	$16,183	$16,539	$16,903	$16,205	$15,536	$14,895	$14,280	$13,690

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+32.2% MoS

$374.42

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $49.93BVPS: $124.79

Revised Graham Formula+78.3% MoS

$1171.69

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings22.4% Yield

$56.92 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $14.4BYield: 22.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-16.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $253.71, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -16.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ALL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Allstate Corporation (The). If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 22.8% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Allstate Corporation (The) (ALL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Allstate Corporation (The).

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Allstate Corporation (The) has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $1461.93 per share compared to its current market price of $253.71. This represents an estimated 82.6% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $374.42.