What is Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Capital One Financial Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Capital One Financial Corporation operates in the Financials sector (Credit Services) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Capital One Financial Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Capital One Financial Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Capital One Financial Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksCOF

COF

Capital One Financial CorporatiFinancial Services / Credit ServicesINTACT

Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, time deposits, and sweep accounts. Its loan products include credit card and personal loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; bank lending; and provides advisory, capital markets, net interchange, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

Share Price

$208.30

52W: $174.24 - $259.64

DCF Fair Value

$537.38

+61.2% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

11.5x

ROIC

25.2%

Operating Margin

33.6%

FCF Yield

8.3%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.89

Market Cap

$127.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$537.38

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$403.04

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($537.38) 25% MOS Buy Target ($403.04) Revised Graham ($560.37) Graham Number ($261.75)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$208.30

DCF Fair Value

$536.87

+61.2% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$10,572M

$100M$10,572M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)16.8%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$7,600M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$131.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$190.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$322.0B

Implied Equity Value

$329.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$12,348	$14,423	$16,846	$19,676	$22,981	$24,015	$25,096	$26,225	$27,405	$28,639
Present Value (PV)	$11,329	$12,139	$13,008	$13,939	$14,936	$14,320	$13,728	$13,162	$12,618	$12,097

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+20.4% MoS

$261.75

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $18.14BVPS: $167.86

Revised Graham Formula+62.8% MoS

$560.37

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings7.9% Yield

$16.36 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $10.0BYield: 7.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-1.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $208.30, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -1.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil COF with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Capital One Financial Corporati. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 33.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Capital One Financial Corporati (COF) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Capital One Financial Corporati.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Capital One Financial Corporati has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $537.38 per share compared to its current market price of $208.30. This represents an estimated 61.2% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $261.75.