StocksFICO

FICO

Fair Isaac CorporationTechnology / Software - ApplicationINTACT

Fair Isaac Corporation provides analytics software in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software. The Scores segment offers business-to-business scoring solutions and services that give clients access to predictive credit and other scores that can be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. Its Software segment provides pre-configured analytic and decision management solution designed for various business needs or processes, such as account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also offers FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. In addition, the company offers analytic and decisioning software comprising FICO Decision Modeler, FICO Blaze Advisor, FICO Xpress Optimization, FICO Analytics Workbench, FICO Data Orchestrator, FICO DMP Streaming, FICO Business Outcome Simulator, and FICO Decision Optimizer; pre-configured solutions consisting of FICO Fraud Solutions, FICO Originations, FICO Customer Communication Service, FICO Strategy Director, and FICO TRIAD Customer Manager; and professional services software, including FICO Implementation Services and FICO Analytic Services. It markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.

Share Price
$985.39
52W: $870.01 - $1998.01
DCF Fair Value
$896.82
-9.9% Premium
P/E (TTM)
28.5x
ROIC
40.3%
Operating Margin
53.8%
FCF Yield
3.6%
Debt / Equity
0.65x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
3.19
Market Cap
$21.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($896.82)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$896.82
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$672.62
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$985.39
DCF Fair Value
$878.14
-12.2% Premium
$774M
$100M$774M (Reported)$50,000M
18.0%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$5,400M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$10.0B
PV of Terminal Value
$14.7B
Implied Enterprise Value
$24.7B
Implied Equity Value
$19.3B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$913$1,078$1,272$1,501$1,771$1,850$1,934$2,021$2,112$2,207
Present Value (PV)$838$907$982$1,063$1,151$1,103$1,058$1,014$972$932

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number
N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $34.58BVPS: $-189.71
Revised Graham Formula+19.3%
$1220.39

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings3.4% Yield
$33.42 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.7BYield: 3.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
10.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $985.39, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 10.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil FICO with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Fair Isaac Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 53.8% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Fair Isaac Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Fair Isaac Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $896.82 per share compared to its current market price of $985.39. This represents an estimated 9.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.

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