What is KeyCorp (KEY) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

KeyCorp (KEY) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is KeyCorp's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

KeyCorp operates in the Financials sector (Banks - Regional) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is KeyCorp's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

KeyCorp's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor KeyCorp (KEY) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits KeyCorp's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksKEY

KEY

KeyCorpFinancial Services / Banks - RegionalINTACT

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits and investment products; personal finance and financial wellness, lending, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, credit card, treasury, and business advisory; commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance; and wealth management and investment services for institutional, non-profit, and high-net-worth clients. It also provides lending, cash management, equipment financing, and commercial mortgage loans; and capital market products and services, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity underwriting, fixed income and equity sales and trading, derivatives, foreign exchange, mergers and acquisition, other advisory services, and public finance to large corporate and institutional clients. In addition, the company offers personal and institutional trust custody services, personal financial and planning services, access to mutual funds, treasury services, and international banking services. Further, it provides community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services, as well as merchant services. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

Share Price

$21.84

52W: $16.47 - $24.07

DCF Fair Value

$39.13

+44.2% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

12.7x

ROIC

26%

Operating Margin

34.7%

FCF Yield

7.5%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

2.48

Market Cap

$23.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$39.13

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$29.35

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($39.13) 25% MOS Buy Target ($29.35) Revised Graham ($54.40) Graham Number ($24.99)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$21.84

DCF Fair Value

$39.07

+44.1% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,744M

$100M$1,744M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)17.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$12,500M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$22.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$32.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$54.2B

Implied Equity Value

$41.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,046	$2,400	$2,815	$3,302	$3,873	$4,047	$4,229	$4,420	$4,619	$4,826
Present Value (PV)	$1,877	$2,020	$2,174	$2,339	$2,517	$2,413	$2,314	$2,218	$2,126	$2,039

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+12.6%

$24.99

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.72BVPS: $16.14

Revised Graham Formula+59.9% MoS

$54.40

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings7.1% Yield

$1.55 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.7BYield: 7.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $21.84, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil KEY with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for KeyCorp. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 34.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: KeyCorp (KEY) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for KeyCorp.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, KeyCorp has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $39.13 per share compared to its current market price of $21.84. This represents an estimated 44.2% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $24.99.