MCO

Moody's CorporationFinancial Services / Financial Data & Stock ExchangesINTACT

Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Service (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets. This segment also offers credit research, credit models and analytics, economic data and models, and structured finance solutions; data sets on companies and securities; and cloud-based SaaS subscription solutions supporting banking, insurance, and know-your-customer workflows. The MIS segment publishes credit ratings and provides assessment services on various debt obligations, programs and facilities, and entities that issue such obligations, including corporate, financial institution, and governmental obligations, as well as structured finance securities. It also provides ratings, investment research, compliance and third-party risk, supplier risk, trade credit, business intelligence sales and marketing, financial and regulatory reporting, balance sheet management, capital management, credit portfolio management, and model risk and governance solutions; Maxsight, a unified risk platform; lending suite, origination, and monitoring solutions; and property, casualty, and sustainable insurance underwriting solutions. The company serves the financial, banking, insurance, corporate, public, and asset management sectors. The company was formerly known as Dun and Bradstreet Company and changed its name to Moody's Corporation in September 2000. Moody's Corporation was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Share Price
$474.95
52W: $402.28 - $546.88
DCF Fair Value
$440.24
-7.9% Premium
P/E (TTM)
30.2x
ROIC
37.1%
Operating Margin
49.5%
FCF Yield
3.1%
Debt / Equity
2.41x
Piotroski Score
5/9
Altman Z-Score
3.09
Market Cap
$82.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($440.24)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$440.24
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$330.18
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$474.95
DCF Fair Value
$440.84
-7.7% Premium
$2,579M
$100M$2,579M (Reported)$50,000M
18.0%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$6,100M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$33.4B
PV of Terminal Value
$49.0B
Implied Enterprise Value
$82.4B
Implied Equity Value
$76.3B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$3,043$3,591$4,237$5,000$5,900$6,166$6,443$6,733$7,036$7,353
Present Value (PV)$2,792$3,022$3,272$3,542$3,835$3,676$3,525$3,379$3,240$3,106

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-503.6% Premium
$78.68

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $15.75BVPS: $17.47
Revised Graham Formula+14.6%
$555.84

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings3% Yield
$14.16 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.5BYield: 3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
11.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $474.95, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 11.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MCO with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Moody's Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 49.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Moody's Corporation (MCO) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Moody's Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Moody's Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $440.24 per share compared to its current market price of $474.95. This represents an estimated 7.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $78.68.

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