What is Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Northern Trust Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Northern Trust Corporation operates in the Financials sector (Asset Management) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Northern Trust Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Northern Trust Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Northern Trust Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksNTRS

NTRS

Northern Trust CorporationFinancial Services / Asset ManagementINTACT

Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytics services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage, transition management, banking, and cash management services. It serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic services; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage; and private and business banking services. This segment also provides global custody, fiduciary services, family office consulting, and technology solutions to high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately held businesses. In addition, it offers asset management and related services comprising active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; multi-asset and alternative asset classes that include private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange-traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. Further, the company provides overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Share Price

$189.19

52W: $121.12 - $195.78

DCF Fair Value

$318.48

+40.6% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

16.3x

ROIC

31.9%

Operating Margin

42.5%

FCF Yield

5.8%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.06

Market Cap

$34.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$318.48

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$238.86

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($318.48) 25% MOS Buy Target ($238.86) Revised Graham ($410.80) Graham Number ($133.86)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$189.19

DCF Fair Value

$318.63

+40.6% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,023M

$100M$2,023M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$6,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$26.2B

PV of Terminal Value

$38.4B

Implied Enterprise Value

$64.6B

Implied Equity Value

$58.3B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,387	$2,817	$3,324	$3,922	$4,628	$4,836	$5,054	$5,281	$5,519	$5,768
Present Value (PV)	$2,190	$2,371	$2,567	$2,779	$3,008	$2,884	$2,765	$2,651	$2,541	$2,436

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-41.3% Premium

$133.85

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $11.64BVPS: $68.41

Revised Graham Formula+53.9% MoS

$410.80

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings5.5% Yield

$10.50 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.9BYield: 5.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

3.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $189.19, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 3.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil NTRS with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Northern Trust Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 42.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Northern Trust Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Northern Trust Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $318.48 per share compared to its current market price of $189.19. This represents an estimated 40.6% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $133.86.