What is The Progressive Corporation (PGR) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is The Progressive Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

The Progressive Corporation operates in the Financials sector (Insurance - Property & Casualty) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is The Progressive Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

The Progressive Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor The Progressive Corporation (PGR) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits The Progressive Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksPGR

PGR

Progressive Corporation (The)Financial Services / Insurance - Property & CasualtyINTACT

The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

Share Price

$217.62

52W: $189.2 - $249.14

DCF Fair Value

$569.57

+61.8% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

10.9x

ROIC

13.7%

Operating Margin

18.2%

FCF Yield

12%

Debt / Equity

0.24x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

4.35

Market Cap

$126.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$569.57

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$427.18

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($569.57) 25% MOS Buy Target ($427.18) Revised Graham ($405.58) Graham Number ($162.78)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$217.62

DCF Fair Value

$568.92

+61.7% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$15,115M

$100M$15,115M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.1%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$6,200M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$142.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$193.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$336.7B

Implied Equity Value

$330.5B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$16,490	$17,991	$19,628	$21,414	$23,363	$24,415	$25,513	$26,661	$27,861	$29,115
Present Value (PV)	$15,129	$15,143	$15,157	$15,171	$15,184	$14,558	$13,957	$13,380	$12,828	$12,298

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-33.7% Premium

$162.78

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $19.93BVPS: $59.09

Revised Graham Formula+46.3% MoS

$405.58

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings11.4% Yield

$24.71 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $14.4BYield: 11.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-6.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $217.62, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -6.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil PGR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Progressive Corporation (The). If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 18.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Progressive Corporation (The).

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Progressive Corporation (The) has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $569.57 per share compared to its current market price of $217.62. This represents an estimated 61.8% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $162.78.